Most people only notice shipping when something goes wrong. Yet even when major trade routes close, supermarket shelves remain stocked, petrol stations stay supplied and the lights stay on. That continuity is no accident. It is the result of an industry whose job is to absorb disruption.

Then - the reality for most people – is that life carries on. Fuel is available in every petrol station, goods remain on supermarket shelves, and the lights stay on in our homes and hospitals. This continuity is a result of the hard work of an industry whose job, fundamentally, is to absorb disruption.

Shipping is the engine room of global trade, and when geopolitics redraws that trading map, our industry is remarkably quick to react. It is rarely visible and almost never celebrated, but it is a large part of why global disruptions do not always translate into unstocked shelves and queues for petrol. Behind that resilience are seafarers who continue to operate in increasingly challenging conditions, often in areas of conflict, keeping global trade moving.

Having spent almost four decades in shipping, I cannot remember another period when geopolitical disruption has become such a defining feature of our industry. Over the past several years, the shipping industry has had to adapt to an almost continuous sequence of geopolitical disruptions – from the war in Ukraine and the sanctions that followed, to attacks on merchant vessels in the Red Sea, renewed instability in the Middle East and an increasingly fragmented global trading system.

Each of these has forced us to redraw the map. When a chokepoint comes under threat, the consequences are immediate and material. The Strait of Hormuz carries close to a fifth of the world’s oil in normal times, much of its LNG and a third of its fertiliser; the Red Sea is the shortest route between Asia and Europe. When either is constrained, vessels are rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, voyages lengthen and the cost of moving energy and food rises. Sadly, these are not abstractions. Seafarers have lost their lives. Ships have been damaged, abandoned and, in some cases, seized.

We are no stranger to these kinds of risks, as challenging as they are. Much less discussed is the potential for volatility to have a long tail. Time and again, we see the pattern that when a particular conflict ends, the market’s confidence does not recover overnight.

We must be realistic that this is the backdrop against which our industry is being asked to decarbonise. For years the debate has centred on the cost of cleaner fuel and its price premium over conventional fuels. The greatest challenge is no longer whether cleaner fuels exist, but whether the world can provide the stability required to invest in them.

The challenge is compounded by a global trade system that is fragmenting. After decades of building the most efficient supply chains possible, companies and governments are now putting resilience and security first: making goods closer to home, choosing trading partners for political reasons rather than price, and accepting higher costs to do it.

Regulation is the other missing piece. The direction of travel towards decarbonisation is clear, but the regulatory framework remains uncertain. Shipping companies need greater clarity around future carbon pricing and incentive mechanisms before committing billions of dollars to assets that will operate for decades. I have long argued that good regulation is what levels the playing field and rewards those who invest early. Without it, we will always be an industry of players racing to be second.

Of course, there is another truth at play here. Disruption can be good for business. When ships are scarce and voyages long, rates rise, and tanker earnings today are strong. But a market made strong by dysfunctional geopolitics and volatile macroeconomics carries more risk.

Today's strong rates will not last forever. But none of it changes where we are trying to get to. At Stena Bulk we still believe in the destination, and we are still investing towards it. We believe that the honest approach is to be pragmatic: to match the right fuel to the right trade at the right time and to support the industry’s long-term goals while accepting that the pace is not always ours to set.

There’s also the matter of the public, who rightly should not have to worry about any of these factors. It is one of the beauties and privileges of our industry that the majority of people can get on with their lives while we absorb what the world throws at the system. But within the industry we need to be honest about what these conditions demand of us.

Shipping has never lacked the ability to adapt. What it needs now is not more ambition, but greater certainty. If governments and regulators can provide that stability, the industry will do what it has always done: invest, innovate and deliver.

By Erik Hånell, President & CEO of Stena Bulk
August 2026